With hindsight everyone knows better. But some decisions do have to be made in the absence of a full set of reliable data. Therefore, in order to create the basis for solid decision-making it is necessary to clarify where the opportunities and risks lie.
The Monte-Carlo Method comes into play here. It allows a system to be modelled using assumptions and estimates about how variable the results of a decision may be. This allows the risks inherent in a project or system to be quantified realistically. The Monte-Carlo Method is suitable for sensitivity analyses and the calculation of confidence limits. It is also used, for example, in the Life Cycle Assessment, to calculate the significance of the results.
As required, we work with our clients to produce a model of the system in question, with all relevant assumptions and corresponding uncertainties. We calculate from this the variability of the results, or limit ourselves to the calculation of the variability of the results of the client supplied model.